What would a good Mitch Marner trade look like for the Maple Leafs? (2024)

This may all be moot if Mitch Marner decides he won’t go anywhere no matter what and the Toronto Maple Leafs front office decides not to push him on it.

However, if the Leafs do get to a place where a Marner trade is on the table, what exactly should they be looking for? What would a good Mitch Marner trade – or rather, a good Mitch Marner blockbuster – look like?

Is there any way to avoid losing such a trade?

History offers some pointers.

Weirdly, Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving has been at the centre of two of the NHL’s bigger blockbusters in recent memory.

Back in the summer of 2018, Treliving’s Calgary Flames dealt 25-year-old fringe Norris Trophy contender Dougie Hamilton (along with Micheal Ferland and Adam Fox, the future Norris Trophy winner and then-prospect who wouldn’t sign with the Flames) and got back two former top-five picks, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin, who hadn’t reallypopped yet in the NHL.

Hanifin was 21 and Lindholm was 23. Both were pending restricted free agents in need of new contracts.

All of it made the deal feel risky at the time. But the Treliving front office’s bet on upside was proven right.

Lindholm, making $4.85 million on the cap on a six-year deal signed shortly after the trade, grew into the Flames No. 1 centre. Hanifin, earning $4.95 million annually on the cap, also for six years, developed into a do-everything top-four defenceman.

Treliving’s Leafs could look to pull off a similar trick were they to trade Marner: Target potential stars in waiting and/or players who figure to deliver value for years to come.

The Winnipeg Jets did a version of this last summer when they agreed to a sign-and-trade that sent an unhappy Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings for Gabriel Vilardi, the 11th pick of the 2017 draft and a pending RFA; useful middle-six winger Alex Iaffalo, who had two more years on his contract with a cap hit of $4 million; Rasmus Kupari, the 20th pick in the 2018 draft; and a second-round pick in the 2024 draft.

Whether this deal proves to be a long-term win for the Jets probably depends on whether Vilardi can stay healthy and continue to blossom, but you can see what the Winnipeg front office had in mind: Get help for now and help, potentially, for later.

Marner is a much better player than Dubois and would merit a much more definitive centrepiece than Vilardi.

Let’s pause there for a second. It’s been easy to assume that Marner might not attract a great offer. And there are complications that could make a deal difficult. But let’s remember that this is a player who has collected the seventh-most points in the league over the past five regular seasons, a player who was also a Selke Trophy finalist two seasons ago and was named the NHL’s top right winger two years in a row.

He turned 27 in May. Stars like that don’t become available all that often.

It’s possible the Leafs are presented with a trade offer that they bring to Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris. Or they may insist that Marner come up with a list of teams to which he would accept a trade.

Fortunately for the Leafs, Treliving has experience operating under somewhat similar conditions.

Two summers ago, Matthew Tkachuk informed Treliving’s Flames of his desire to play elsewhere. Among the teams he would accept a trade to: The Blues, Lightning, Hurricanes, and Panthers.

Even with those limitations, the Flames still came up with a quality return: Jonathan Huberdeau, coming off a 115-point season, and MacKenzie Weegar, an emerging top-pair defenceman. It was a trade that initially kept Calgary competitive and won rave reviews.

The rub was that both players were 29 and had only a year left on their contracts.

What came next soured the trade for Calgary: Monster eight-year extensions for Huberdeau and Weegar, signed by Treliving.

That’s what potentially makes a theoretical deal centered around someone like St. Louis power forward Pavel Buchnevich problematic. Buchnevich is 29, with one year left on his contract. Any kind of trade would presumably come with an extension, the kind of extension (which would start when Buchnevich is 30) that could be a problem in no time for the Leafs.

Ideally, if they were to trade Marner, the Leafs bring back a headliner(s) in Marner’s age bracket, or even younger. (Also: Cheaper.) Talent that can grow atop the roster with Auston Matthews (27 in September) and William Nylander (28).

Maybe that means following the Hamilton model and targeting a pending RFA like Seth Jarvis. Jarvis, a right winger, scored 33 goals last season for the Hurricanes, he’s a strong defender, and he’s only 22. His next contract won’t come close to Marner’s current deal nor the one that comes after that.

If Jarvis is a no-go for Carolina, maybe Toronto pivots to Andrei Svechnikov, who just turned 24 and has five years left on his contract at $7.75 million on the cap. The full Svechnikov breakout hasn’t totally happened yet, though he has produced just under a point per game the last three regular seasons, added 11 points in 11 playoff games this spring, and is 6-foot-2 and almost 200 pounds.

The Hurricanes also have 25-year-old Martin Necas to sign and perhaps trade.

Again, theoreticals are hard with the uncertainty of Marner’s preferred destinations. Right now, he appears content on staying put.

A young-ish top-six centre or young-ish top-four defenceman would be the dream centerpiece returns for the Leafs in a Marner swap. But young-ish talent of any kind is fine too. That and futures (draft picks, prospects) to insulate the team for the long haul.

What if one of the teams Marner would consider a deal to were in the division, like Tampa, for instance? The Leafs could look to solve a long-term need on defence by swapping Marner for Mikhail Sergachev (and other stuff). Sergachev is only 25 and signed for the next seven seasons at $8.5 million on the cap.

Maybe the Leafs don’t believe he’s worth that big ticket.

Given the age of Victor Hedman (33) and Ryan McDonagh (36), maybe the Lightning aren’t interested in dealing Sergachev either.

What if they were willing to make Brandon Hagel the centerpiece of a trade for Marner instead? Hagel doesn’t turn 26 until August and starts an eight-year contract, with a cap hit of $6.5 million, next season. (He has zero trade protection at the moment.)

A deal such as that would see the Leafs replacing Marner with Hagel and gaining over $4 million in cap space, potentially, next season. That’s moneythat could be spent on say, Chris Tanev, in free agency. Hagel isn’t as talented as Marner, but he would bring a greasier element to the Leafs, plus, the cap space to improve the roster elsewhere.

Can the Lightning even afford Marner now and later? Do they believe the disparity in talent between the two players is worth the disparity in pay?

Related: How many teams are willing and able to pay Marner’s next deal, which figures to come with a cap hit at least equal to the $11.5 million of Nylander’s new deal?

What the Leafs shouldn’t do in a Marner blockbuster is focus on quantity over quality.

Almost a decade ago, the Leafs traded Phil Kessel and received not one sure thing in return, just a slew of lottery tickets, the most appealing of which was probably Kasperi Kapanen, who never panned out. The Leafs did net a first-round pick that would later be used in a deal for Frederik Andersen.

It wasn’t enough.

Kessel’s value may have been low, but he still had seven years left on his contract and quickly became an integral piece of two Stanley Cup champions in Pittsburgh.

That’s the mistake of most trades, rare as they are, involving star players. The team trading the star opts for more as opposed to the piece or two that will really matter in the long run.

In 2021, Buffalo traded Jack Eichel for a number of pieces but none that moved the needle in the big picture. Not for a No. 1 centre of Eichel’s calibre. The closest thing was Alex Tuch, more a supporting cast member type than centrepiece. (The Sabres also netted draft picks that may yet deliver.)

Eichel’s health issues complicated the process, but he also had five years left on his contract.

Vegas also stole Mark Stone out of Ottawa for basically nothing – prospect Erik Brännström, a second-round pick, and depth forward Oscar Lindberg. As with Kessel and Eichel, it’s not apples to apples; Stone was headed for unrestricted free agency and known to be eyeing Vegas. But the Senators ultimately settled for a bet on Brännström that never panned out.

If the Leafs are going to make any bets — i.e. on talent in waiting like Lindholm and Hanifin in the Hamilton blockbuster — they better be sure.

The downside of getting a trade like this wrong would be significant. Marner has struggled in the postseason, but he’s still among the greatest Leafs ever — fifth all-time in assists and eighth in points.

Maybe after exploring a trade, Treliving and company realize there’s no winning trade to make. The obstacles are too cumbersome. The offers aren’t good enough.

Just because a trade like this is hard though doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not worth pursuing. Nor does this idea that Marner may thrive elsewhere. (The more pertinent question: Can he thrive here?) At the very least, it’s worth exploring. Because the downside of the status quo, of not doing anything again is, well, more of the status quo. And that hasn’t worked for the Leafs.

(Top photo: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Cap Friendly and Hockey Reference

Jonas Siegel is a staff writer on the Maple Leafs for The Athletic. Jonas joined The Athletic in 2017 from the Canadian Press, where he served as the national hockey writer. Previously, he spent nearly a decade covering the Leafs with AM 640, TSN Radio and TSN.ca. Follow Jonas on Twitter @jonassiegel